BEIJING,July 13 (Xinhua/APP): The world is currently undergoing changes unseen in a century. The economy is the foundation of these changes. In the 21st century to date, the most important factor in this dramatic change in the world economic landscape is the rise of China.
In 2000, measured by purchasing power parity, China’s economic aggregate accounted for 6.9 percent of the world’s total. The proportion rose to 16.8 percent in 2018, an increase of 9.9 percentage points. The share of G8 fell from 47 percent to 34.7 percent.
The rise of China has caused concern about a possible Thucydides Trap with the United States. China is now the world’s largest trading nation, the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries and regions, and the second-largest trading partner of more than 70 other countries. The U.S. rivalry with China is a source of uncertainty for all countries in the world.
I believe that when China’s per capita GDP reaches 50 percent of that of the United States, the world will enter a new stable pattern.
There are three reasons. First, China’s population quadruples that of the United States, and the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the U.S. economy by then.
Second, China’s developed regions — Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, as well as the Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces along the eastern coast with a combined population of more than 400 million — will have a per capita GDP equivalent to that of the United States, and their economic volume, industry and technology will also be at the same level, and then the United States will lose its technological supremacy over China.